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标  题: 中国降利率的两个可能的结果

http://gengwg.blogspot.com/发信人: tooearly (郎教授不炒股), 信区: Stock
标  题: 中国降利率的两个可能的结果
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun May 10 12:36:19 2015, 美东)

A、黄金走势

很多人对黄金走势表示乐观，我恰恰认为相反。
1、降息不是印钱
2、降息不是因为高CPI，是反过来。
3、中国降息美元涨
4、没有人会持有黄金，都在换成钱来投资／投机！

所以结论是，中国越降息，黄金越跌！


B、经济走势

降息的目的是为了刺激实体经济，降低中小企业融资成本（注意，是中小企业，大企业
并不存在融资问题），鼓励生产；但是我认为事实可能相反。
1、历史已经证明，过度降息只会刺激虚拟经济。
2、中小企业的各种名目的贷款，最终会转移出来炒楼炒股，而不是去本来实体经济需
要的地方。
3、中国股市、楼市继续涨，直到可能的。。。

所以结论是，非常遗憾。


几个推论：
1、可以继续购买中国股票，和A股相应ETF，虽然要注意风险，但是短期应该手艺不错。
2、对于黄金的操作，还是以我以前说过的打探头为主－－过1200就开始short。
3、如果想对冲风险，做空A股的，请悠着来，世界的经济趋势是以月和年来计算的。急
了一时，套了一世。

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