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标 题: 从IPO pipeline 看弯曲房市前景

发信人: luren7788 (路人七七八八), 信区: SanFrancisco
标  题: 从IPO pipeline 看弯曲房市前景
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar  8 13:57:02 2019, 美东)

今年貌似将是IPO丰收年。弯曲的几个大明星是 Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Pinterest,
Slack, Palantir, Robinhood。我们来看看这些公司目前的估值：

Uber：120B
Lyft：15B
Airbnb: 30B
Slack: 10B
Palantir: 30B
Robinhood: 5B
Pinterest: 10B

加起来 $200B 以上。当然这些公司都很久了。融资好多轮。但是一般来说普通职员，
包括马工的股份，总共应该占10%左右。所以总值有 $20B。这些公司总部和大部分关键
员工都在弯曲。我们算75%吧，那就是 $15B 的财富。

拿了这么多钱干嘛？首先当然是买房。大部分员工都是无房族，都等了这么多年了，从
年轻小伙变成了中年大叔，头发都等白了。终于能买房了，这个高兴啊。

那我们假设其中2/3拿来进入房市，也就是$10B。能买多少房子呢？算两倍的Leverage
，入市的钱就是$20B。平均2米的房子，那就可以买一万栋。所以光是这几个公司今明
两年就会增加刚需“标准房”一万栋。

打开redfin看看弯曲市场上有没有一万栋2米左右的房子。

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