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标 题: 关于躺平sp500 qqq index etf 的疑惑

 发信人: andrewaa (AndrewAA), 信区: Stock
标  题: 关于躺平sp500 qqq index etf 的疑惑
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 27 22:57:21 2021, 美东)

因为历史经验,美国一百多年就是一直在涨

或者这么说,sp500就是世界上最大的500家公司
下面的涨上来了就会替换掉上面掉下来的
所以这种长期看很难不涨

不涨的情况只有全球最大的500家公司同时不发展,并且落后的公司就算一涨上来就马
上停止发展
你觉得这个可能性大么?

纳斯达克100同理


发信人: andrewaa (AndrewAA), 信区: Stock
标  题: 关于躺平sp500 qqq index etf 的疑惑
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 27 23:05:16 2021, 美东)

这个问题是,搞死皮平均一年10-20%的收益
你躺平死皮的时候眼红别人搞个股期权动不动就翻倍么?

现在很多人都知道躺平死皮打赢大多数策略,但是大家就是不信邪

另外,定投死皮据我所知是巴菲特主要推崇的方法
他推荐的原因,不是说回报有多高,而是这个方法可以跟上通胀让资金不贬值


你也可以这么看,sp500就是世界上最大的500家公司
原则上来说是世界上最稳定赚钱的500家公司
所以概念上长期就应该稳定上涨
这个上涨长期来看是不受庄家影响的

Comments


  1. 股市是在高位,但是,对多数人来说,比较好的选择,
    要么买指数,要么买分红股,科幻股就算了。不买这些,
    转成现金或者二逼国债的话,每天被他们
    抢钱,就跟被蚂蚁咬一样,会非常难受的,
    迟早还会再来扒火车。

    ReplyDelete

  2. 不买股票,你买啥?

    通胀8%, 你买1.x%的国债? 你存0.x%的CD?
    买房子? 还是买啥?


    长期美股必然看涨,因为印钱太容易,政府吸上海洛因,high得很,
    根本停不下来,印到哪算哪吧

    ReplyDelete

  3. 第一:GDP增长是刨除掉通货膨胀的,所以加上通货膨胀后的名义gdp增长,得有个7%吧
    第二:spy有分红,这又是接近2%了
    第三:sp500都是国际大公司,美国的gdp增长没那么快,可是发展中国家更快,所以
    sp500增长率高于美国gdp增长率是应该的

    所以全部加起来,10%没啥问题。关键的关键还是看未来三十年sp500里边的这些大公司
    是不是还能统治全球。最大变数就是中国吧。。。

    ReplyDelete

  4. 房市股市蓄水池也是有极限的,溢出来就会导致通胀了
    目前刚开始有这么个苗头,但也只是个苗头而已

    ReplyDelete

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