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美国股市已经过热

发信人: liucarl (盛笑笑), 信区: Stock
标  题: ZT:4大迹象表明：美国股市已经过热
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul  1 13:35:47 2014, 美东)

CNNMoney的报导指出，美股目前仍不可一世，但投资人可能低估了潜藏的危险，有4大
迹象：对联准会（Fed）的刺激已成瘾、股票已全然太贵、市场已远远跑在实质经济成
长之前、企业领袖已不再乐观，显示有过热之虞。

CNNMoney检视最近许多有关股票价值及企业信心的资料后认为，虽然全球经济成长的前
景依旧蓬勃，但聪明的投资人却要提高警觉，因当前有4大值得忧心的迹象。

1、对联准会的刺激已成瘾：

简言之，如同国际清算银行（BIS）在新发表的年度报告中所述：金融市场已依恋上宽
松货币，以至于忽视了实质经济上及地缘政治上的脆弱性。

2、股票已全然太贵：

从席勒本益比（Shiller P/E）这项知名的衡量股市价值指标来看，美股标普500指数目
前比益比已逾26倍，而从溯至130年多前以来的长期平均本益比，则仅16.5倍。

席勒本益比曾在1929年时超过25倍，并在科技泡沫累及美股崩跌前的2000年时创下44倍
最高纪录，而较近期，则在2003年回到25倍以上后一直持续到2007年，然后就发生所谓
的「大衰退」。

根据瑞士信贷的研究，席勒本益比一旦升破26倍，美股接下来5年的报酬率通常为负。

3、市场已远远跑在实质经济成长之前：

Cumberland顾问公司的董事长暨投资长柯塔克（David Kotok）表示，以美股总价值相
对于美国国内生产毛额（GDP）而言，前者唯一另外一次高于后者，是在科技泡沫最高
峰时。

柯塔克在研究报告中说：「我们认为修正的机率正在升高。」

4、企业领袖已不再乐观：

知名会计及顾问公司德勤(Deloitte)周一公布的调查结果显示，美国的财务长（CFOs）
已降低对今年获利的预期，也降低对资本支出的预期，其中制造业的财务长尤其悲观。

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