Re: 求牛人解答UCO

http://gengwg.blogspot.com/UCO:
The investment seeks to provide daily investment results (before fees and
expenses) that correspond to twice the daily performance of the Dow Jones—
UBS Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM.


首先，它是track UBS Crude Oil sub-index, 不是spot crude oil, 其次， 它是2倍
的ETF。 leveraged ETF 跟普通的股票和没leverage的ETF不同，它的performance 是
path dependent的， 也就是说它的收益不是只根据买点和卖点的价格决定 （普通股票
就是path independent)，它还跟价格的变化过程有关系。 有可能oil 价钱从你买到卖
涨了一倍， 但是如果你买的是leveraged oil ETF, 你亏钱也是可能的， 要看价钱是
怎么变化过来的。所以这类只适合比较短线。

你可以看看USO, 它的价钱跟oil price应该更相关。
USO:
The investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot
price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil.


所有U打头的这几个ETF都是一样问题， 他们里面没有股票只有期货，　油价不动他就
在不停的流血。

UCO是在期货rollover的基础上再来个leverage，　双倍损耗。

USO好一些但还是不停的流血。　　你看看2009年全年油价上升70%， USO上升18%，
UCO是负的。

建议看看09年全年油反弹多少， 这些股票反弹多少。

X打头那几个才是传统ETF。  XLE/XOP/XES。

 XLE: The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before
expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of
publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Energy Select Sector
Index.

XOP: The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees
and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an
index derived from the oil and gas exploration and production segment of a U
.S. total market composite index.

XES: The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees
and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an
index derived from the oil and gas equipment and services segment of a U.S.

这几个ETF都是track oil industry 这个 sector， 而不是crude oil price (新闻里
整天说的原油价格）.

不是说这个几个ETF不好， 但是如果你们只是想赌原油价钱会长， 我觉得还是USO 和
USL 比较适合。 不过因为这两个都是follow crude oil future， 所有都有rollover
的花费。