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聪明反被聪明误

发信人: litaihei (李太黑), 信区: Quant
标  题: 太黑来科普 之 聪明反被聪明误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct  6 21:42:18 2008)

太黑和几个朋友聚会，大家一起玩了个游戏。每个人出一块钱，然后写下一个0到100之
间的数。然后每个人写的数加起来，求平均值，再除二，谁写的数最接近这个值，谁就
拿走所有的钱。

太黑神机妙算，智珠在握，这个游戏，我赢定了。我是这么想的。每个数小于100，那
么平均值肯定小于100，平均值的一半，肯定小于50。那么每个人猜的数很定不会大于
50。照此推理，那么平均值肯定小于25。。。。推理下去，最佳猜测，就是0！

太黑自信满满的写下了答案，结果却输掉了，反而是猜12的人赢了。。。真是聪明反被
聪明误阿。
--
当一切都无可挽回的沦为真实，我的故事就要结束了。
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