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标  题: 我来分析一下巴菲特错在哪里，请mark。谢谢。

http://gengwg.blogspot.com/发信人: xiaoxiaoren (可爱小宝宝), 信区: Stock
标  题: 我来分析一下巴菲特错在哪里，请mark。谢谢。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Apr  4 20:44:37 2015, 美东)

buffet说。

In short term, stock market is like a voting machine, in long term, it is
all about value.

首先，这个不是巴菲特说的，是我最喜欢的graham说的。period。

其次，这句话只对了一半。stock本身的nature就是一个voting machine，长期短期都
是。 嗯。

好了，深度解读一下这句话。

短期内，一个stock的表现就是看投资者的看法，buy or sell，就这么简单。

长期呢，一个stock的表现还是投资者的看法，但是因为美股市场的高强度价值体系，
优质企业的performance会得到appreciate。那么，value的东西就会被投资者认可，那
么就是看value。


美股 VS A share

美股参与者都是“有钱人”大部分都是高学历，即便是不懂金融产品的，大量的资金会
有养老金mutual fund来处理，这样的体系造成了市场主流的高度专业化。这种专业化
会对价值体系产生一个invest理念。

A share市场的主流是不入流的fund和无数non-sense的散户，不管是读报表的百姓，还
是恶意机构瞎扯淡的恶庄，还是玩的老一套pump & dump。所以价值投资并不会对这个
market产生有意义的影响。

所以投资的真谛是： follow 市场的估价体系。所以，

美股 走 FA
A share 走 TA

当然了，如果N年后 A share也走价值估算，最后最后还是FA。

嗯。
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