标题: Re: 请问现在情况下是应该先还房贷，还是投资股市？

发信人: poincare (...), 信区: Stock
标题: 请问现在情况下是应该先还房贷，还是投资股市？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 1 16:17:17 2018, 美东)

比方说现有房贷在50多万，利息率在3.75左右的七年ARM。如果我未来将会有一定的资
金，
比方说3-5万，我是是应该先房贷，还是应该投资股市或者债券？
1。如果是投入股市的话，我担心现有股市的估值比较高，如果一下子把大量的资金投
入的股市（比方说
SPY)，那么入市时机不好把握，但是要是采取分批进入的方式，必然会有大量资金暂时
处于闲置
状态。
2。如果是投资债券的话，现有的bond的收益都不太高，扣除税后，能到4%已经是不太
容易了。
3。如果是提前还房贷的话，相当于是立刻获得了一个30年的免税的利息在3.75的一个
bond的所有收益，
而且是税后的收益。这样一来其实至少是不会比bond的收益来的差。
请问在这种情况下，是不是说先换房贷，不是一个很差的选择。
--

发信人: poincare (...), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: 请问现在情况下是应该先还房贷，还是投资股市？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 1 21:46:41 2018, 美东)

这里有个问题。虽然美股的平均收益在10%左右，但是这个要假设一直连续定投的情况
下才能
收到这个平均收益。如果是在股市的最高点突然一下投入很多，然后股价立刻下跌，那
么等于
是在收益最差的时候投入了很多的本金，这样一来就不划算了。换句话说，在2008年时
投入
股市的钱需要很多年才能实现年化10%的结果。

【在 winhao (勇敢的人) 的大作中提到: 】
: 当然买股票了，即使指数一年也不至3.75%. 美股长期年收益9-10%. 即使买在2007年的
: 最高点，到现在也赚了很多。

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