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目前芯片国产化进展估计:技术不乐观,国际环境有望好转

 
陈经亚洲视觉科技研发总监1小时前
1. 群众冷静了一些,对没有干货的“国产芯片很牛逼”类文章需求下降。

2. 上海北京各在搞一条去美化产线,以前就知道的。进展有,但是离群众盼望差距很
大。目前是用二手设备搞的状态,国产光刻机应该是没有好消息,也不止是光刻机的问
题。

3. 先进制程完全没法提,卡得死死的,群众也慢慢接受了现实。成熟芯片制程的事,
28nm、40nm去美化、国产化,进展也需要时间,还是困难期,没到加速推进不断出成果
的时间。

4. 主要芯片产能,还是按国际路线走。2025年以前都不会有纯国产化的实质产能贡献
,需要假设美国不下狠手。美国方面也有麻烦,全球芯片产能短缺,还有不少事需要和
中国谈。拿芯片下手只是报复,不解决美国的问题。还是要以周旋为主,多进口设备,
积极开展国际合作。其实是全球业界对抗美国政客,各业界公司都知道未来方向,美国
政客也有顾忌。

5. 经常有少数美国政客造势要搞大,搞死中芯国际,彻底弄死华为,卖了的荣耀也打
击,全面打击中国芯片。这么搞主要的问题是没有油水,美国政客也会亏钱,世界经济
危机。急眼了中国会掀桌子,如打台湾,台积电停产,都不要过了。近期中美应该会开
展会谈,芯片问题应该也会谈,中国牌也不少。

6. 个人感觉国际环境的好转会早于国产芯片技术的突破。

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