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电车和油车最本质的差异

 发信人: jergens (jergens), 信区: Stock
标  题: 电车和油车最本质的差异
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 25 20:04:41 2021, 美东)

是一个用电,一个用油么?No!

是一个软件为主,一个软件为辅么?No!

电车和油车最大的区别一句话就可以说明白:电车用到的移动零件远远少于油车用到的
移动零件。

这句话不是我说的,是当初Elon Musk创业时对投资人说的。

电车用的移动零件大约是20个或更少。油车是200个左右(大部分是内燃发动机相关零件
)。

用的移动零件只有1/10,那移动零件之间互相的磨合复杂度也就是指数级别的下降。传
统油车为了安全考量,要测试各种零件和这些零件的磨合程度,这些测试成本极其高昂
,需要不断试验和经验的积累。这是为啥油车行业在过去几十年中新的竞争者很少的重
要原因。

电车一出来,造车复杂度大幅下降,导致行业门槛同时迅速下降。电车行业领军的那几
家,Tesla, Nio,理想,小鹏,全部都是没有传统油车背景的公司。这在以前根本是不
可想象的。

Tesla做电车早,有先发者优势。但是电车这个行业门槛低的特点,将会导致Tesla的先
发者优势会被后来者迅速稀释。Tesla如果不能在硬件和软件上继续保持明显的技术优
势,那市场被蚕食是迟早的事。

Tesla现在这个价格是很可笑的。全世界对车的需求总量每年的增加只有很少的几个点
。换句话说全世界所有车企的市值总和每年也就是增加几个点而已。去年Tesla和几家
电车市值跳上来,全世界车企市值总和一下增加了50%+,完全脱离全世界对车辆需求总
量的实际增长率。

长期来看,上市公司价格必定会回归企业的内在价值。如果Tesla没有开发出新的市场
和技术,仍然靠卖车赚钱的话,股价再跌50%都算是少的了。
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