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标 题: Re: 房市大佬们怎么看啊 投了奥斯钉了

 发信人: smart2003 (DavidXu), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 房市大佬们怎么看啊 投了奥斯钉了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar  1 00:38:54 2021, 美东)

我就住在奥斯汀,跟你分享个身边真实的故事。去年疫情刚开始的时候,朋友圈里一个
华人房产中介把自己仅有的一套房子卖了,搬去公寓住。大家问为什么,夫妇二人说,
疫情来了经济疲软,房价肯定大跌。他们准备等疫情过后再低价买房,赚取差价,或者
同样的价钱买更大的房子。因为她本来就是房产经济人,所以自己代理自己的房屋,连
代理费都省了(是不是觉得实在太聪明了?)。然后,随着政府开始救市,无限QE,奥
斯汀的房价跟打了鸡血一样不断上涨,年底oracle公布要把总部搬到奥斯汀,房价当然
又涨了一波。这下这俩人可彻底傻眼了,去年卖房的钱别说买更大的房子,连过去的房
子都远远不够了(房价一年间涨了起码百分之三四十)。他们夫妇二人现在还住在公寓
里,不知道要住到何时。

回到你的问题“房产经纪应该眼光比普通人毒辣吧”,你说呢?房产经济人可能懂房产
交易,但可能一点不懂经济,眼光也不一定准。以我看来,奥斯汀的房价上涨应该是没
问题的,但你说10年超过旧金山,估计说这话的人自己也不会相信的。奥斯汀不缺土地
,除了西边丘陵湖泊限制了大量建房(但富人区,豪宅主要集中在西边的west lake)
,东西南三个方向一马平川有的是地方盖房子,现在奥斯汀也的确在到处建新房。这些
年奥斯汀确实从弯曲迁入大量IT企业或者分部,但是你仔细看看大部分都不是核心开发
岗位。FAANG的确都来了,但核心项目很少有在这边做的。而且奥斯汀本土的优秀
startup太少,比弯曲少一个数量级。过去几十年间弯曲一轮又一轮的上市造富运动才
撑起了硅谷的昂贵房价。奥斯汀要想房价超旧金山,光靠大企业在这开个site还不行,
必须在大量风投的加持下涌现出大批优秀的startup才行。别说超硅谷了,先超过或者
接近雅图再说吧。

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