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个人在行业的发展中是渺小的

发信人: WKF (歪猫~~非猫), 信区: JobHunting
标  题: 个人在行业的发展中是渺小的
发信站: The unknown SPACE (Tue Oct  1 12:48:42 2002), 转信

最近看到The Wall Street Journal上的一篇文章
Behind the Fiber Glut讲的是telecom泡沫是如何形成的.
90年代.com的兴起使得人们越来越相信Internet traffic会成倍增长.
98年美国商业部在报告中预计Internet traffic doubles every 100days.
于是大家纷纷贷款铺光缆,各研究结构频出研究成果,
现在的结果是: Demand只占Supply的3%左右.
LA到NYC之间传输150Mbps的费用从2000一季度的$1.8降到了2002一季度的$0.2
OK,大家看到了,telecom的泡沫有多严重,即便是现在还远不到尽头.
所以现在工作难找,不能怪大家都学CS,不能怪那些早几年转CS的F1,F2门.
前几年大家都这么看好telecom的时候,不是你学不学CS的问题,那个时候,
就象有人说的,能说出个JAVA,UNIX就会有人要你,是市场决定的.

但是是不是IT就真的走到尽头了呢?IT真的就是夕阳产业拉?
也不竟然.19世纪美国修铁路的时候,开始也是大家都来借钱修,
以至于供远远大于需求,然后预期又没有答到,于是泡沫破灭.
过了3-5年,大家慢慢发现火车运输真的是很便倢的时候,
就又迎来了一个高速发展的时期.

telecom的下一个好日子也应该在3-5年之后吧,当Local电话公司真正放开
the last mile的时候.

所以我觉得个人在行业的发展过程中的作用实在是太渺小了,
谁能在3,4年前看到了今天,即便你看到了,你又能阻止什么?

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