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要尽量使自己的收益率稳定



投资很重要的一点,却也是散户们最容易忽视的一点就是要通过资产分配让自己的年收
益率,甚至月收益率稳定。

一个牛市吹嘘能挣80%,而熊市就亏掉50%的人
还远不如一个牛市挣20%,熊市亏10%的人

为什么?
1.8×0.5 = 0.9

1.2×0.9 = 1.08

而他们两个都比不上一个牛市只挣5%,而熊市也能挣5%的人
1.05×1.05 = 1.1025

所以有时候稳定自己的收益率比什么都重要。华尔街的投资人都很清楚这点。


再举个例子。一个人投项目,成功率50%,赢了翻倍,输了就剩一半。
如果这个人开始100块钱,投10次,胜5次,输5次,最后还是100块
100×(2^5)×(0.5^5) = 100
现在这个人改变一下策略,每次保留一半的现金,只拿出全部现金的一半投同样的项目
。胜5次输5次后100块就变成了
100×(0.5+0.5×2)^5×(0.5+0.5*0.5)^5=180

为什么同样的投资,原来的做法就不赚钱,分配下资产后就赚了呢?原因就在于原来赢
了就赚一倍,输了赔一半的收益率差距太大。通过保留cash的做法使得赢了赚1.5倍,
输了变成0.75后就使得收益率趋向最优,差别就是原来的80%

是不是最稳定的收益率就是最优的呢?也未必。具体情况要具体计算。不过对于散户来
说,一般追求比较稳定的收益率的好处是多多的。

这也是为什么我很反对在股市赌er,赌涨跌。如果要赌的话,一定要拿小比例的钱去赌
,这样还不至于影响总的收益率的稳定。

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