Most of banks have PE less than 10, and quite few have PB less than 1, even
less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only
can go up long term. Due to the Euro debts issue. Oil price went down. Many
oil related stock went down quite bit. Now some oil related stocks are
really bargain. Their PE less than 10, some even have PB less than 1. APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation.
不要去碰ZNGA, FB, GPRN 这类股票。还有 AMZN/NFLX/CRM 之类的 overvalued 股票。
一个earning, overnight. 就掉20-50% because they are just overvalued.
我也只做这2个+科技。
C我背书，最好之一。
你每天喊的COF，其实是我心里喊了无数遍的#1无脑加仓股，我自己也偷偷的买了很多
。看完ER report发现good-will的比例太高，这也就是为啥ER盘后我割肉出局的原因，
现在想想也不后悔，请兄弟多看保重！有空我们COF讨论一下。
“APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation. ”
APC是overvalued了，这点我和你看法相反。
HES我在班上喊过，我2013能源世界文章提到的重点pick，不过现在涨了这么多了，而
且庄狠，盘子小（相对而言）我建议不要轻举妄动。
BP是undervalued，however，我有比它更好的！哈哈哈。不断无脑加仓中！
Back to your question.
Overall, I don't like GPRN type of business. Now I just notice it is
gradually changed to be an online retailer(sell products) instead of only
posting AD for the retailers. A couple important reasons that I don't like
this type of business.
* Entry barrier is too low. Anyone can get into the business easily.
* Consumers have no loyalty. They only have loyalty to the price. So,
margin is limited. This is the same problem that AMZN retail business
has. When it starts collecting sales tax, consumers are moving to newegg,
B&H, buydig and ebay. I am in CA, 9% tax is quite high.
If you don't own it, don't touch it. Look for something has
* consistent good margin.
* less competitive.
* really undervalued.
* brand new emerging industry.
If you already have it, find a chance to dump it whenever there are some
major announcements. Switch to the one at least meet above requirement. I
make mistake too, but I will try to find time to switch when I realize
the one I have is obviously not good one in the next 12-18 months.
less than 0.5. C, BAC, JPM, BCS, MS, GS all have PE less than 10.
The one I like most now is the C, PE around 7, PB is only 0.5(against
tangible book value). BCS is the next one I am watching. I may buy large
position after it find good CEO if its stock price still under $10.
Among all commodities, only oil is good. Think about if China stops massive
construction, there will be less and less demand for steel, and
consequently, less demand for the 矿砂(see CLF today). While oil
is completely different. People in China, Indian and many emerging countries
become richer. They will buy car, will consume more oil too. Oil price only
can go up long term. Due to the Euro debts issue. Oil price went down. Many
oil related stock went down quite bit. Now some oil related stocks are
really bargain. Their PE less than 10, some even have PB less than 1. APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation.
不要去碰ZNGA, FB, GPRN 这类股票。还有 AMZN/NFLX/CRM 之类的 overvalued 股票。
一个earning, overnight. 就掉20-50% because they are just overvalued.
我也只做这2个+科技。
C我背书，最好之一。
你每天喊的COF，其实是我心里喊了无数遍的#1无脑加仓股，我自己也偷偷的买了很多
。看完ER report发现good-will的比例太高，这也就是为啥ER盘后我割肉出局的原因，
现在想想也不后悔，请兄弟多看保重！有空我们COF讨论一下。
“APC/
HES/BP is in this kind of situation. ”
APC是overvalued了，这点我和你看法相反。
HES我在班上喊过，我2013能源世界文章提到的重点pick，不过现在涨了这么多了，而
且庄狠，盘子小（相对而言）我建议不要轻举妄动。
BP是undervalued，however，我有比它更好的！哈哈哈。不断无脑加仓中！
Back to your question.
Overall, I don't like GPRN type of business. Now I just notice it is
gradually changed to be an online retailer(sell products) instead of only
posting AD for the retailers. A couple important reasons that I don't like
this type of business.
* Entry barrier is too low. Anyone can get into the business easily.
* Consumers have no loyalty. They only have loyalty to the price. So,
margin is limited. This is the same problem that AMZN retail business
has. When it starts collecting sales tax, consumers are moving to newegg,
B&H, buydig and ebay. I am in CA, 9% tax is quite high.
If you don't own it, don't touch it. Look for something has
* consistent good margin.
* less competitive.
* really undervalued.
* brand new emerging industry.
If you already have it, find a chance to dump it whenever there are some
major announcements. Switch to the one at least meet above requirement. I
make mistake too, but I will try to find time to switch when I realize
the one I have is obviously not good one in the next 12-18 months.
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